On Bracken's Piece

What has had me thinking lately is the author Matt Bracken's article of how the disintegration is likely to happen which I found posted over at Western Rifle Shooter's.

Now Bracken writes fiction and has about 3-4 novels which completely cover in a very realistic way how the United States falls apart, so what he has to say isn't much of a surprise. If anything, I think his vision might be a little too optimistic. I don't see any likelihood at all of competent, skilled militias taking to the streets and dealing with the massive riots. At least not beyond their very limited AOR.

Another issue to be concerned with is the racial division illustrated within the article. I'm not saying it's unrealistic or racist ... it's neither unrealistic NOR racist to speculate on racial division ... but in my area the lines are not so clearly drawn. I'll try to explain.

So if we have rampaging hordes of youngish black people, they didn't just spring up from the earth overnight. In an urban environment, I really have no clue how things will go down, but out in my part of the country, if you have a young black hooligan then they are the son, daughter, or grandchild or someone else who may be a pillar of the community. Everyone's related and everyone knows each other. If someone is trying to burn my cabin or steal my pig and I shoot them, then I might have just shot the nephew of a friend, such as the elderly black Christian man who repairs my small engine equipment (generators, pumps, etc.) and who prays with me from time to time.

We moved out to this part of the country, at least in part, so that when the collapse comes we'll be better protected by geography, environment, and low population. Once the roads are cut, I really do not see urban ghetto violence boiling out into the desert where I am, even if they are hungry and looking for food. And the county I live in has about an 8% black population. So I have a hard time seeing how Bracken's scenario would play out in my area.

The Hispanic population is much higher, probably even closer to the number of locals who identify themselves as "white". (I don't know what white means, really. It may be the color of my bare arse but it's not the color of my neck or my arms. My people are from Ireland, Scottland, and intermarried with both Cherokee and Choctaw. You can trace members of my family (the European ones even) who were in America as early as 1702.)

But the Hispanics out here have had generations to become integrated with "mainstream" society. Another laughable word that doesn't really apply out here. 90% of the privately owned restaurants are Mexican. Every store sells Mexican food. Many of the old ranchers speak at least some Spanish and the style of dress among the older generations is a mix of Texas cattleman and vaquero. The younger generations are a mixed bag in their style of dress.

So one might argue that Hispanic culture IS the mainstream out here. At least Mexican culture. Hispanic is a very wide word that the American government (and silly urban people) use to cover all brown people who speak some derivative of Spanish. They cover the Carribean culture of Puerto Rico with it, as well as the Argentina gaucho ... two cultures which couldn't be more different though they speak roughly the same language.

While we would have some problems out where we are should the collapse come, they should be relatively easy to deal with. Once the roads are cut from the main highway then foot and vehicle traffic will be at a minimum. My neighbors are "old Texas" and while they may enjoy their Social Security benefits and air conditioning now, I have every expectation that they'll rise to the occasion when it becomes needful to do so. There are others whom I have spoken with over the years who will see the coming collapse and realize that I'm absolutely right and the time is nigh and they'll show up on my doorstep one dark night. We'll serve some coffee to go with their humble pie but they should know that a place has been prepared for them already.

So in summary, Bracken's visionary article is a very likely scenario to play out here in the United States. The naysayers can't say it wouldn't happen when it's already happened in Rhodesia and South Africa. "Oh, but that's AFRICA," they might say. Yes, but then you get to explain the even odder divides that created bloody civil war, rape camps, and genocide in the nation-state which used to be known as Yugoslavia.

Whether you divide yourself from your fellow humans among religious, racial, or ideological boundaries or claim to be above such nonsense, the fact remains that there are those who will do so and they will divide YOU into a category whether you wish it or not. Many people are going to be held down on the carpet and butchered for sport while they scream some dribble about how they donated to the United Negro College fund last year.

The mob will know no reason and it always wants blood.

Should you deal peacefully with one mob and it leave you in peace then the counter-mob will show up some point later and murder you for "aiding" their opposite number. There will get to be no neutral parties. Everyone is going to be forced to take a side. Even in my sparse region we have the everpresent threat of the Mexican Cartels. They are an unknown variable in all this mess and we don't have a clue how they might play out in the Southwest.

So it's time to plan, think, and act accordingly. Build your communities. Establish your networks. You aren't going to survive on 6 months of stored rice. The little old lady preppers, God bless 'em, who have helped to establish and build the survival movement through their memories of the old skills and methods are going to be destroyed all alone in their small redoubts. Anyone who tries to go it alone will face that same problem. When the enemy can surround you for 5 days and nobody comes to your aid then you will eventually succumb. You'll be trapped in your house while they loot everything that's hidden from your view or outside of shotgun range. You need at least three trained and disciplined adults in your household or community who can stand watch. Do you have a plan on how to stop traffic on the road? A lot less mayhem will be committed by those who have to walk in and walk out. Do you think your local government will survive longer than the FedGov and will hinder you?

I haven't been following politics for months now, preferring my own interests. However the little snippets I hear from people or glance at on other blogs tells me that the time is drawing much closer. China can end our nation with a phone call at this point. How? All they've got to do is suddenly announce that the dollar is worthless and that they want gold in exchange for their debt. By morning you'd see $9 gas (in the stations that still have it) and the grocery stores would empty out by noon.

Prepare accordingly. Stop fooling yourself. You're not going to survive in the suburbs right next to 5 million potentially starving people. Even if they all come peacefully to your garden (which they won't) then they'll still strip you clean and starve you out. If your only food preservation technique depends on cheap canning jars from Walmart then you're screwed. If the extent of your gardening is a tomato plant growing in a decorative planter on your backporch then you're going to starve. If you think you can board up your windows and hide in the darkness from the mob because you've never learned to shoot or don't own a gun then you're deluded. They'll search every house. If you think you can singlehandedly fend them off because you own an AR-AK-AM-FM whatchamacallit lead-spitter which can do umpteen rounds per minute then you're also fooling yourself. The mob knows no reason. In Rhodesia the white farmers would kill a dozen raiders at night and then spend the day hauling off the bodies and burning them, only to have a dozen more try the fences the following night.

So again, prepare accordingly. If all you've been preparing for is a 3 day blackout in which neighbors all come out and sing songs by candlelight while they help each other remove downed tree limbs then you're going to be taken offguard by what happens when it's permanent, and how swiftly what happens WILL happen.